By R. Sasankan

Greek mythological figure Sisyphus was condemned by the gods to an eternal punishment where he must push a large boulder up a mountain, only for it to roll back down to the bottom just as it nears the top. The plight of India's energy planners wrestling with the target of 15 per cent share for natural gas in the country's energy mix reminds me of this mythical Sisyphus.

Back in March 2022, the Indian government announced the decision to raise the share of natural gas in the country's energy mix to 15 per cent. When the announcement was made, the share of natural gas was only 6.3 per cent. The target of 15 per cent was supposed to be achieved by 2030. Sadly, we haven't been able to move the needle on natural gas consumption in the country. Nobody seems to have a clear picture because officialdom has been extremely coy when it comes to publishing data that risks busting the pipedream. The common perception is that the current consumption level is between 6% and 6.7%. At this pace, there is the grim possibility that the target won't be realised even by 2050.

In the last week of November this year, a high-level expert committee formed by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB), the downstream regulator, called for sweeping structural reforms to create a free, competitive natural gas market in India.

Grand targets and high-level experts' committees are common features of Indian economy. However, there is no system of accountability built around the achievement of overambitious, pie-in-the-sky targets. It is common to see achievements fall far short of targets by a wide margin without sparking any furore.

Similarly, most recommendations of the experts' committees reports remain unimplemented though they are routinely flagged by newspaper headlines. On present reckoning, the fate of the PNGRB-appointed expert committee's recommendations will not be much different even if several of its recommendations are eminently sensible.

I am of course looking at these recommendations from a journalist's point of view. Do these recommendations address the basic problems that plague the domestic gas industry? I have been reporting on India's energy scene for over four decades. After Indian companies started producing natural gas from their fields, several gas-based power plants came up in various states.

But here comes the paradox: even though several parts of the country were starved of electricity, gas-based power wasn't a popular option because the state electricity boards baulked at the cost of purchasing expensive power. As a result, quite a few gas-based power plants remained idle for many years. According to the latest data, India's 24.9 gigawatts (GW) of gas-based power plants are either idle or operating at sub-optimal levels because of the high cost of natural gas.

Domestic natural gas production meets only about half of the country's demand; the rest comes from imported LNG. India imports large quantities of LNG to meet the growing demand. But at the same time imports fluctuate. When global spot LNG prices are low -- as they were in late 2024 and early 2025 -- Indian buyers increased imports. Conversely, when global prices surged, India drastically cut back on spot purchases as alternative fuels like coal and naphtha were cheaper options. Put simply, India is a highly price-sensitive market and the global LNG market is extremely volatile because of supply-demand dynamics and other geopolitical factors.

India is the world's fourth-largest importer of LNG as well as the third largest importer of crude oil. India's LNG imports are projected to rise significantly to meet future energy goals. Recent data shows imports averaging around 27-28 million tonnes for the fiscal year ending March 2025.

Domestic production of natural gas presents a bleak picture. For quite a few years, domestic gas production has stagnated. The situation is unlikely to change in the absence of a commercial discovery. Existing fields like South Bassein in western offshore are also ageing.

India's natural gas consumption is projected to grow substantially, with some forecasts projecting that it could more than double by 2040. The primary growth drivers are the City Gas Distribution (CGD) networks (for CNG vehicles and domestic piped natural gas) and the industrial sectors which are shifting toward cleaner, and often more affordable, fuel options compared to traditional liquid fuels. The fertilizer sector currently remains the largest consumer.

This brings us back to the report submitted by the PNGRB-appointed experts' committee. The media has reported extensively on the eminent recommendations that it made. The recommendations relating to the Independent systems operator and open access are all very good and essential for the creation of a flourishing gas market along. However, my big beef is over the fact that the report fails to address the basic pitfalls of the industry. First, we need to acquire gas. How do we address the sourcing problem? Second, we must allow the market to decide the price and junk a system that is skewed because it relies heavily on the administrative elements in pricing. Finally, we must create a competitive market that calls for multiple players who will be allowed to compete vigorously in a level-playing field.